Welcome to the next ‘BIG’ thing that is coming to the RLD… the ‘RLD Playoff Formula’. This isn’t a formula telling you who is going to MAKE the playoffs… it simply lets you know who is playoff-ready at the moment. The higher the rating, the better. Without further ado, here it is. It’s pretty complicated, so stay with me.
The 5 Ingredients:
1. Road record vs. playoff teams
2. Regulation wins vs. playoff teams
3. Special teams
4. Home-ice advantage
5. Consistent goaltending
Here's how it goes down:
1. Road record vs. playoff teams… Teams have to prove they can win on the road against the best competition.
- You come up with the team's record on the road against playoff teams. Take the total points accumulated in those games and divide it by the number of games.
- Ex: San Jose is 5-4 in this category (10 pts in 9 gms = 1.11)
2. Regulation wins vs. playoff teams… Teams would like to prove they don’t need more than 60 minutes to beat a playoff team; if you can beat a playoff team in regulation, it looks so much better than doing so in overtime/shootout.
- You take all the wins against playoff teams that occurred in regulation. Just take the points accumulated from those wins.
- Ex: San Jose has 13 wins in this category (26 pts.)
3. Special teams… To win in the playoffs, you must have good special teams, case closed.
- Ex: San Jose has the #4 power play and #5 penalty kill... 4+5=9... the Sharks are tied for 1st in the NHL when you add each team's special teams together like this. They lost the tie-breaker, so they get 29 points. The Flyers (#2 PP, #7 PK) won the tie-breaker (total percentages) with San Jose, so they get 30 points. Minnesota is 3rd in combined special teams, so they get 28 points… yada yada.
4. Home-ice Advantage… This category is in here because you have to defend your own barn, especially in a must-win situation.
- This is the total points accumulated in home games.
- Ex: San Jose is 22-1-2 at home (46 pts.)
5. Consistent Goaltending… Let’s face it, you don’t get a ring if your goalies aren’t clutch and consistent.
- Take the team GAA
- San Jose has a team GAA of 2.38
Here is the actual formula:
Step 2 + Step 3 + Step 4 = b (xStep 1) = c (/Step 5)
Ex: San Jose’s formula…
- 26 + 29 + 46 = 101
- 101 x 1.11 = 112.11
- 112.11 / 2.38 = 47.11 - the rating
Another example: Detroit’s formula…
- 26 + 23 + 34 = 83
- 83 x 1.23 = 102.09
- 102.09 / 2.87 = 35.57
Here are the results for the Western Conference teams (#1-10):
1. San Jose Sharks… 47.11
2. Detroit Red Wings… 35.57
3. Calgary Flames… 20.64
4. Chicago Blackhawks… 36.48
5. Phoenix Coyotes… 13.95
6. Edmonton Oilers… 22.92
7. Vancouver Canucks… 15.57
8. Anaheim Ducks… 14.13
9. Minnesota Wild… 22.43
10. Columbus Blue Jackets… 10.74
- So here what the formula is implying for the West… even though the Coyotes are #5 in the conference, Minnesota at #9 is a better playoff team at the moment, and so on.
- And it’s also saying that the Oilers (#6) have a higher rating than the Flames (#3), and that Calgary would have a tough time beating Edmonton if they happened to play each other in the 1st round. On the flip side, the Sharks and Blackhawks would destroy the Ducks and Coyotes, respectively.
Eastern Conference Results (#1-10):
1. Boston Bruins… 44.39
2. Washington Capitals… 22.26
3. New Jersey Devils… 25.80
4. Montreal Canadiens… 15.82
5. New York Rangers… 23.10
6. Philadelphia Flyers… 34.14
7. Buffalo Sabres… 20.28
8. Carolina Hurricanes… 12.10
9. Florida Panthers… 18.13
10. Pittsburgh Penguins… 14.30
- Now, I know you’re going to say that Montreal is a much better Cup contender than Florida. Ok, you’re right… but the Habs are 3-7-1 on the road against playoff teams this season. And remember, they were 1-4 away from the Bell Centre last spring. Montreal is not a team built for the playoffs.
The formula does not take in account regular season head-to-head matchups, how hot a team is going into the playoffs, or how much playoff experience a team has… it simply states the facts. I understand this system is not perfect, but it's a pretty accurate barometer IMO.
Look for the Playoff Formula right here on the RLD constantly from now ‘til the postseason. I’ll update it as much as possible from here on out, because these numbers will change on a daily basis. Also, I could add a couple extra kinks to it when it’s all said and done.
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