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Posted by Ryan Porth Labels: Playoff Formula
Welcome to the 2009/10 unveiling of the ‘RLD Playoff Formula’. This was a big feature of ours in the second half last year, and we’ve made the proper adjustments to make it better and more accurate. This isn’t a formula telling you who is going to MAKE the playoffs… it simply lets you know who is playoff-ready at the moment if the postseason started TODAY. The higher the rating, the better. Without further ado, here it is. It’s pretty complicated, so stay with me.
The 7 Ingredients:
1. Road record vs. contending teams
2. Regulation wins vs. contending teams
3. Strength of victory
4. Special teams
5. Consistent goaltending
6. Success in March & April
7. Goal differential
Here's how it goes down:
1. Road record vs. contending teams… Teams have to prove they can win on the road against the best competition.
- You come up with the team's record on the road against playoff teams. Take the total points accumulated in those games and divide it by the number of road games.
- Ex: San Jose is 6-4 in this category (12 pts in 10 gms = 1.2)
2. Regulation wins vs. contending teams… Teams have to prove they don’t need more than 60 minutes to beat a team in contention. If you can beat a playoff team in regulation, it looks much better than doing so in overtime/shootout.
- You take all the wins against contending teams that occurred in regulation. Just simply take the points accumulated from those wins.
- Ex: San Jose has 9 wins in this category (18 pts.)
3. Strength of victory… A new addition to the formula this season, it’s always good to beat, say, the Flyers three times rather than the Maple Leafs. This is designed to separate the men from the boys!
- Ex: San Jose has 10 wins against teams with an average of 14.7 points.
4. Special teams… To win in the playoffs, you must have good special teams.
- Ex: San Jose has the #4 power play and #5 penalty kill... 6+6=12... the Sharks are tied for 3rd in the NHL when you add each team's special teams together like this. Even the tie-breaker (total percentages) couldn’t separate them from Atlanta (#3 PP, #9 PK), so they both get 27.5 points. Philadelphia has the best overall special teams, so they get 30 points. Florida has the worst, resulting in just one point… yada yada.
5. Consistent Goaltending… Let’s face it; you don’t win the Cup if your goalies aren’t clutch and consistent.
- Take the team GAA
- San Jose has a team GAA of 2.47
6. Success in March/April… This won’t be needed until the spring. There’s something to be said for a team that’s red-hot in the last month going into the playoffs… i.e. the Penguins last year.
- Take the total points accumulated in March and April
7. Goal differential… This has a small affect in the formula, but this is a stat you can look at and separate good and bad teams.
- Ex: San Jose has a +14 goal differential this year. Move the decimal point to the left, and that’s included as a bonus in the formula (1.4).
Here is the actual formula:
Step 2 + Step 3 + Step 4 + Step 6 = y (xStep 1) = y (/Step 5) = y (+Step 7)
Ex: San Jose’s formula…
- 18 + 14.7 + 27.5 + = 60.2
- 60.2 x 1.2 = 72.24
- 72.24 / 2.47 = 29.25
- 29.25 + 1.4 = 30.65
Here’s how the Eastern Conference turned out…
1. Pittsburgh Penguins… 40.61
2. New Jersey Devils… 31.42
3. Atlanta Thrashers… 28.09
4. Buffalo Sabres… 26.40
5. New York Rangers… 24.43
6. Philadelphia Flyers… 20.01
7. Washington Capitals… 19.10
8. Ottawa Senators… 15.27
9. New York Islanders… 9.90
10. Boston Bruins… 9.15
11. Florida Panthers… 4.39
12. Toronto Maple Leafs… 2.55
13. Montreal Canadiens… 1.56
14. Tampa Bay Lightning… 0.69
15. Carolina Hurricanes… -0.35
- Ex: A current playoff matchup would be the #4 Rangers vs. the #5 Devils. According to the formula, the Devils would beat the Rangers in a close series.
The Western Conference…
1. Colorado Avalanche… 35.03
2. Phoenix Coyotes… 30.92
3. San Jose Sharks… 30.65
4. Chicago Blackhawks… 20.23
5. Los Angeles Kings… 19.67
6. Calgary Flames… 16.24
7. St. Louis Blues… 13.65
8. Dallas Stars… 12.97
9. Columbus Blue Jackets… 12.56
10. Anaheim Ducks… 9.20
11. Detroit Red Wings… 8.76
12. Nashville Predators… 8.18
13. Vancouver Canucks… 7.15
14. Edmonton Oilers… 4.96
15. Minnesota Wild… 2.27
- Ex: A current playoff matchup would be the #2 Sharks vs. the #7 Canucks. According to the formula, the Sharks would beat the Canucks in a short series.
The formula does not take in account regular season head-to-head matchups or how much playoff experience a team has… it simply states the facts. Look for this year’s version of the Playoff Formula right here on the RLD all season long leading up to the playoffs. The next update will come in early December!
at 11:10 AM
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