Preview: Penguins-Canadiens

How They Got Here…
Penguins-
Round 1: 4-2 series W vs. 5) OTT
Canadiens-
Round 1: 4-3 series W vs. 1) WSH
Season Series…
3-1 Penguins
Previous Playoff Meeting…
1998 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals (4-2 Canadiens)
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Penguins… Crosby and Malkin (among others) outweigh any offensive production the Habs can generate.
Defensemen-
Edge: Even… The Pens’ group is pretty solid; the Habs just shutdown the most explosive team in the NHL.
Goaltending-
Edge: Canadiens… Though Fleury has had his fair share of postseason success, Halak is on a different universe right now.
Special Teams-
Edge: Canadiens… Their penalty kill and power play are both top-notch.
Coaching-
Edge: Even… Martin is a bit more experience, but both he and Bylsma are quality coaches.
Experience-
Edge: Penguins… I give Pittsburgh the slight edge since this group was together, for the most part, all of last year.
Team X-Factors…
Penguins-
Alexei Ponikarovsky… When GM Ray Shero acquired Ponikarovsky from the lowly Leafs in March, the Ukrainian was expected to produce more than he has (3 goals in 22 games, including the playoffs). Ponikarovsky was a streaky player in Toronto, and it’d be a good time to get on a hot streak against a team he knows fairly well. If ‘Pony’ can get going next to Malkin, it should pay dividends for the Pens, who’ll need secondary scoring to prevail in this series.
Canadiens-
Andrei Markov… In Wednesday’s Game 7 in Washington, Markov played one of the best defensive games I’ve seen him play. He logged the most ice-time for Montreal, and blocked 6 shots. He’s going to have to keep up that pace here in round two… and produce more while he’s at it. Markov only tallied 4 points (all assists) against the Caps. The Habs need him to be more effective offensively, even if they’re not on the man advantage.
Key Injuries…
Penguins-
D Jordan Leopold (head, expected to return during series)
RW Tyler Kennedy (leg, questionable for start of series)
LW Chris Kunitz (undisclosed, questionable for start of series)
Canadiens-
D Jaroslav Spacek (illness, questionable for start of series)
D Paul Mara (shoulder, doubtful for rest of playoffs)
Keys to the Series…
Penguins-
1. Stronger penalty kill… Pittsburgh had a soft PK in the first round, surrendering 7 goals on 22 attempts from Ottawa. Against a high-powered power play unit like Montreal’s, Bylsma will have to work on getting that PK better.
2. Patience is a virtue… The Capitals were frustrated to no end by Montreal’s blue-line. Though effective, the Habs will have a tougher time stopping a more patient attack led by Crosby. If they don’t try to force shots when there’s not a lane, and can get Halak moving from side-to-side, they should be fine.
Canadiens-
1. Keep blocking shots… Martin’s Habs played a near-perfect Game 7, where they blocked 41 of the Capitals’ shots – 41! They averaged upwards of 25 per game during the series, and need to keep that going.
2. Contain Malkin… Crosby had 14 points versus the Sens, but he didn’t win the series by himself. The Canadiens need to try to shutdown Malkin’s line, and force Crosby to carry the team offensively. If ‘Geno has success, they’ll have trouble pulling another upset.
Burning Questions…
Penguins- Will they be able to get around the Habs’ defensive pressure?
Like I said, Montreal was able to frustrate Washington like no other team has done all year. I assume they’ll try to do the same thing to Crosby. But if Pittsburgh can dump and chase effectively, they’ll be able to generate scoring chances and crack the Great Wall of Halak.
Canadiens- Can Halak keep this success going?
Speaking of Halak… I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a three-game performance like Halak’s in my time of watching hockey. If he keeps up this high level of play, he has a chance to become J.S. Giguere circa 2003.
Why the Penguins will win…
Bylsma’s crew is the best team remaining in the Eastern Conference. Even if the Capitals were still alive, I’d consider the Pens the team to beat as the two-time defending conference champions (like I do with Detroit). This is a very hard team to beat 4 times in a 7-game series, mainly because of Crosby and Malkin. If Fleury is on his game, too, I don’t see the Penguins losing this series.
Why the Canadiens will win…
Halak is the only reason why Montreal would win this series. Like the aforementioned Giguere back in 2003, the Slovakian would have to put the team on his back and carry them. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’ll be incredibly tough. Also, they have to get more offensive production outside of Cammalleri’s top line. They’ve shocked everyone in the last week, but it’s going to be a tough turnaround between the first and second round.
Final Thoughts…
Cinderella could keep dancing past this round, but Halak has to be as good or better than he was against Washington. That’s a tough task… go with Pittsburgh in a tight series.
PREDICTION… PENGUINS IN SIX