NHL Mapquest: What might the new divisions look like?

As if hockey fans didn’t have enough news to digest in the last week with the Board of Governors meetings, the NHL Awards and Entry Draft and the blockbuster trades from Philadelphia, word is getting out that the move of the Atlanta Thrashers to Winnipeg has opened the door to some radical realignment discussions. Not only will the conferences be re-aligned, but the entire structure of six divisions is apparently going to be revamped as the NHL tries to re-insert some Old Time Hockey rivalries and accommodate teams (like Columbus and Detroit) whose revenues suffer when their divisional opponents are not in the same time zone.

The proposed solution? According to several reports that came out over the weekend, there is a study underway that looks at having just four divisions, guided primarily by geography, and permitting a playoff structure where the first round is strictly within each division. Word is that the vote will be on the agenda when the Governors meet in December and would take effect in the 2012-13 season.

Sounds great, doesn’t it? Overall, probably a step in the right direction. But there are a few problems that become apparent when you start to draw lines on the map.

Challenges

The first is that 30 (teams) divided by 4 is not an even number. This is an issue that is dealt with in the AHL at present where two divisions have 7 teams while two others have 8. The top 4 teams of each division advance to the playoffs. Further, if at the end of the regular season, the 5th place team in the 8-team division has more points (in the standings) than the 4th place in the 7-team division, they bump that team out, and play in the 7-team division’s opening round. (This is what happened this past season with the Calder Cup Champion Binghamton Senators. The B-Sens placed 5th in the very competitive East Division and ended up taking out two teams in the Atlantic Division, advancing to win the Eastern Conference finals.)

The next issue is the priority to get all 16 Eastern time zone teams together in the Eastern Conference. In doing so, you have only 14 teams left over for the Western Conference. That’s a little trickier to fix and appears to work in the favor of the 14 Western teams of whom 8 would make the post-season. Is there a way to fix that without undermining the desire to make the first round about geographic rivalry?

Take a look at all 30 teams when separated into time zones in the map below:

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And now let’s look at three alternatives each taking a different approach on proximity and history, knowing that in the end, the choice is most likely the one that generates the highest profit for the League.

PLAN A

Adhering rigorously to the time zone map, the solution we arrive at is shown in the 4 divisions shown below, where it’s 7 p.m. simultaneously for every team in the Eastern Conference every night all season long, a high priority for both Detroit and Columbus. Both divisions in the Western Conference cover two time zones by necessity, but none stretch over three.

Also note that I have circled the “Original 6” teams in yellow, with the understanding that those teams sell tickets for their “Newbie 24” hosts wherever/whenever they play away games around the country – an issue I address more directly a little further on.

(click to enlarge)

But what about the split of 14 teams in the West to 16 in the East – is that statistically fair? If the 9th place team in the East has more points than the 8th in the West, would that Eastern team then play a first round series vs a Western team from Alberta or California? Or would the NHL ignore that disparity? And what if the Phoenix Coyotes run out of options in Arizona and relocate to the Eastern time zone; then what? So, while I appreciate the valid concerns of Columbus and Detroit, there are probably a couple other alternatives worth looking at.

PLAN B

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This one is not that much different from Plan A, except for poor Columbus being moved back to the West to equalize the conferences at 15 apiece. The good news here is that both Western and Midwest divisions cover only 2 time zones (currently 2 Western Conference divisions are spread across 3 time zones).

We’re also hearing that the NHL intends for the format of the regular season schedule to include more inter-conference play (the current allotment is just 18 games out of 82) and so perhaps this predicament for the Blue Jackets is not as much a challenge as exists currently. One could also revise "Plan B" a bit, and irritate the Red Wings brass, by swapping out Detroit and Columbus. In that scenario (B-2), the team count of the Atlantic and Northeast divisions would reverse to 8 and 7 respectively with Columbus becoming the 8th team in the Atlantic division.

PLAN C

Finally, I took at a look at options where the divisional rivalries took priority over the time zone discussion based on the hypothesis that the increase in fan passion (read: revenues) from more natural rivalries would offset the increased expenses of more travel. I also addressed the issue that consolidating 5 out of 6 "Original 6" teams in one Division (and one conference) as shown in Plans “A” and “B” thinking that might not be the most effective way to market hockey nostalgia league-wide and for the greater good (to make money).

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Ah, the plan that harkens back with nostalgia to the Wales and Campbell Conferences and splits the Original 6 evenly into 2 northern divisions and, better yet, into both conferences (cha-ching!). It also embraces the idea that the newer Western and Southern market teams have their own traditions and place in the league. Three out of four divisions cover 2 time zones (none with 3) with the exception being in the Northeast (with just one). The three New York area teams remain together, along with the Pennsylvania pair. Toronto and Buffalo, Chicago and Detroit, can have at it all season long.

This plan would get support only with the added conditions that the regular season schedule was exceedingly even in its distribution of inter-conference games - or I'd bet the Ontario and California contingents would likely veto.

I also would wonder if having 6 out of 7 Canadian teams in one conference is a good idea or not. If you’re going to isolate one, at least this would be the right one. (Ole Ole!)

The real problem in this scheme arises with the second round of the Campbell Conference playoffs where a series could see the Kings and Leafs subjected to a grueling 3,000 mile cross-continental match-up early on. The Red Wings have been there and done that plenty, with some success, but would continuing with an alternative that allows for this possible outcome undermine the intention of the re-design?

What's the answer?
It’s easy enough to start drawing lines and considering the pros and cons. None of us doubts that the analysis over the next six months will focus on which solution provides the greatest economic benefits and efficiencies.

The divisional format approved (both the map and the playoff structure) will have ramifications that are hard to foresee now, as the NHL is seeing tremendous resurgence in popularity of its “brand” and lucrative media ratings, despite the economic struggles caused by uncontrollable macro-economic problems that undercut the stability of a number of markets.

For me, the best solution will be one that is adaptable to changing (economic) conditions down the road while it strongly references the best of NHL traditions. It’s impossible to please everyone, but if the NHL can adequately address both these concerns, the resulting success will be hard to ignore and the revamped NHL will feel just like it did in the days of the good old hockey game.

Photos credit: Carolyn Christians