8) Kings vs. 1) Canucks
Series Schedule…
Season Series…
2-1-1 Canucks
Previous Playoff Meetings…
2010 WCQ: 2) Canucks over 7) Kings in 6
1993 DF: 3) Kings over 1) Canucks in 6
1991 DS: S1) Kings over S4) Canucks in 6
1982 DF: S2) Canucks over S4) Kings in 5
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Canucks… Los Angeles has a couple of weapons, but the Canucks have depth and the Sedin twins.
Defensemen-
Edge: Even… Both the Canucks and Kings have been playing superb defense heading into the playoffs.
Goaltending-
Edge: Even… Jonathan Quick is a worthy Vezina Trophy candidate, but hasn’t proven himself in the playoffs. Roberto Luongo has the talent, but has come up short on the big stage. It’s a draw.
Special Teams-
Edge: Canucks… Los Angeles’ penalty kill is ranked 4th, but both of Vancouver’s special teams units are ranked in the top 10.
Coaching-
Edge: Canucks… Darryl Sutter has playoff experience, but Alain Vigneault engineered the Canucks’ Cup final run a year ago.
Experience-
Edge: Canucks… Most of this Canucks roster played in the Cup final last June.
Health-
Edge: Even… Daniel Sedin (concussion) and Jeff Carter (ankle) are on the verge of returning.
Keys to the Series…
Canucks-
1. Match the Kings’ physicality… What was the Canucks’ biggest sore spot in their Cup final defeat against Boston last June? Their physicality. They were pushed around by the Bruins all series long. The Kings have some big hitters and like to throw around the body; you can bet they’ll try to dish out the physicality. Vigneault’s club can’t let that happen again.
2. Play with the lead… The worst thing the Canucks can do here is let the Kings hang around in games and the series. Anze Kopitar and company finished 28th in the NHL with an 8-22-7 record when giving up the first goal. The Kings have also had offensive droughts all year. If the Canucks can build a 2-0 or 3-0 lead in games, it will make things that much tougher for the eighth-seeded Kings.
Kings-
1. Vezina-like performance from Quick… When looking at eight seeds trying to pull the big upset, the first thing you ask is whether that underdog has a goaltender that can steal games. Is Quick that kind of steal-a-series goalie? He’ll need to be if the Kings want to advance. Quick has a very good case to win the Vezina (and contend for the Hart), but his career GAA in the playoffs is 3.32.
2. Nullify Vancouver’s power play… Outside of Quick, one of the Kings’ strengths in 2011-12 has been the penalty kill. Their PK is ranked 4th in the league and it has been dominant for long stretches of the season. If Daniel Sedin is effective upon his return, the Canucks’ man advantage is a lethal unit. Sutter’s gang needs a flawless PK to make the Canucks sweat.
Why the Canucks will win…
They went through a lull early on in March, but the Canucks’ defensive game has been excellent in recent weeks. In their final nine games, they surrendered just 1.56 goals per game. As good as the Kings have been defensively this season, Vancouver was ranked in the top five as well in goals per game – and they have a consistent offense to go with the solid defensive play. Also, don’t undervalue the Canucks’ determination to get back to the Cup final; last year’s Game 7 loss still stings. They are certainly playoff tested.
Why the Kings will win…
If Quick plays like he did most of the season, the Kings absolutely have a chance here. They play a great defensive system and have a standout penalty kill that could give Vancouver some fits. But that’s just a start. Can the Kings realistically bank on winning every game by a score of 2-1 in this series? At some point the offense is going to have to come alive and stay alive. They’re going to need Mike Richards and Jeff Carter do what they did in 2010 when they helped the seventh-seeded Flyers advance to the conference final. They have the weapons to pull the upset – it’s just a matter of putting everything together.
Forecast…
These two teams didn’t express much love for one another met they met in the first round two years ago. I wouldn’t expect anything to change here. The Kings are going to be physical. The Canucks are going to score their goals. Quick will steal a game or two, but the Canucks’ all-around depth will prevail in the end.
Prediction: Canucks in 6
7) Sharks vs. 2) Blues
Series Schedule…
Season Series…
4-0 Blues
Previous Playoff Meetings…
2004 WCQ: 2) Sharks over 7) Blues in 5
2001 WCQ: 4) Blues over 5) Sharks in 6
2000 WCQ: 8) Sharks over 1) Blues in 7
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Sharks… If you look at sheer talent, San Jose has the edge. They have a lot of forwards that can catch fire at any moment.
Defensemen-
Edge: Blues… The Blues gave up the least number of goals this season and Alex Pietrangelo deserves to be a Norris Trophy finalist.
Goaltending-
Edge: Blues… Antti Niemi has won a Cup and advanced to a conference final in his first two postseasons. Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined for the Jennings Trophy. The Blues’ tandem has been more consistent this year.
Special Teams-
Edge: Even… San Jose’s great power play will be facing a solid penalty kill unit. St. Louis’ average power play will be facing a bad penalty kill unit.
Coaching-
Edge: Blues… Ken Hitchcock and Todd McLellan are both great coaches in their own right – but the elder statesman has the slight advantage.
Experience-
Edge: Sharks… The Blues have some veterans, but the Sharks’ core group has been to back-to-back conference finals.
Health-
Edge: Even… Both teams are healthy.
Keys to the Series…
Blues-
1. Send an early statement… St. Louis didn’t finish the season on a great note, going 4-4-4 in their final 12 games. Meanwhile, the Sharks won four in a row and have been in playoff mode for an extended period of time. However, the Sharks have been very inconsistent all year. The Blues need to send a statement in Games 1 and 2 to show everyone they are going to be a force to be reckoned with this spring.
2. Play their game… One thing the Blues did not do in their shaky finish was play like their capable of. They got sloppy at times and undisciplined within the system. If the Blues play their game like they did in a season series sweep against these Sharks, Ken Hitchcock’s club is going to be tough to beat.
Sharks-
1. Niemi out-play Halak / Elliott… The strength of the Blues’ breakout season as a team has been goaltending. While Hitchcock’s system has helped, Halak and Elliott have been dynamite in net. That’s the one glaring disadvantage for the Sharks heading into this series. Niemi will have to out-duel the Blues’ tandem to give the Sharks the needed confidence to pull the upset.
2. Improve the penalty kill… Though the Blues’ power play hasn’t set the world on fire, San Jose’s PK has been dreadful all year. Not only does that unit need to improve, but it has to gain some momentum in games in the process. They simply can’t afford to give up power play goals at their regular season rate.
Why the Blues will win…
They’ve been the better team all season. Led by Halak and Elliott the Blues surrendered the least amount of goals in the NHL; meanwhile, youngsters Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk led a defense that played a sound system on a consistent basis. Andy McDonald, Alex Steen and Matt D’Agostini have had to shake off concussions this season, but the Blues have a clean bill of health. Having a healthy lineup hasn’t translated to wins – yet. It should make a difference in the playoffs. Also, regular season series usually don’t mean much, but the Blues won all four against the Sharks by a combined score of 11-3.
Why the Sharks will win…
San Jose certainly was not the team many expected them to be prior to the season. But maybe they’re peaking at the right time, coming off four straight wins to close the season. Maybe they’ll benefit from the lowered expectations, as most expect the Blues to win this series. Maybe their experience will be a factor against a Blues team that doesn’t have much tread on the playoff tires as a team. There’s something enticing about the Sharks in this matchup. However, they have to be opportunistic and have to be better-rounded than they were for 82 games if they want to knock off the Blues.
Forecast…
It’s safe to say the Blues overachieved this season, while the Sharks underachieved. Will things even out in the second season? The Sharks have the tools and the firepower to beat the Blues. They are more evenly matched than their records show. The momentum will sway each direction multiple times. Look for the Blues to eventually wear down Team Teal and survive – but it won’t be easy.
Prediction: Blues in 7
6) Blackhawks vs. 3) Coyotes
Series Schedule…
Season Series…
3-1 Coyotes
Previous Playoff Meetings…
First playoff meeting
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Blackhawks… Is this even a question? The ‘Hawks have firepower and youthful depth. Phoenix has a hard time out-scoring opponents.
Defensemen-
Edge: Blackhawks… It’s tough to not give Phoenix the edge here, but Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are the bigger matchup nightmare.
Goaltending-
Edge: Coyotes… It’s simple: Mike Smith has been consistent; Corey Crawford has been anything but.
Special Teams-
Edge: Coyotes… Of the four combined special teams units, Phoenix’s penalty kill (ranked 8th) is the only one that is effective.
Coaching-
Edge: Even… Joel Quenneville (minus 2010) and Dave Tippett both have a history of underachieving in the playoffs.
Experience-
Edge: Blackhawks… Chicago’s core won a Stanley Cup together in 2010.
Health-
Edge: Coyotes… The biggest injury concern heading into the playoffs surrounds Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews.
Keys to the Series…
Coyotes-
1. Mike Smith carrying over the momentum… The Coyotes were a different team down the stretch when Smith kicked his game into high gear. He stopped 190 of the 192 shots he faced in the final five games, resulting in five wins in which the Coyotes out-scored the opposition 16-2. That version of Smith has to appear in this series.
2. Secondary scoring… Chicago scored 2.98 goals per game throughout the year; Phoenix scored 2.56 per game. So Dave Tippett’s crew will need to find some secondary scoring to match the explosiveness they are lining up against. Mikkel Boedker, Lauri Korpikoski, Raffi Torres… please stand up.
Blackhawks-
1. Control puck possession… The Blackhawks have to play their game in this series, and they thrive off puck possession. Phoenix allowed the third-most shots per game during the season, though a low percentage was high percentage shots. If Joel Quenneville’s club can control the puck possession and generate chances because of it, their chances of advancing will go up.
2. Find a power play… However, their chances won’t be very good if they don’t find a power play that is effective. With or without their top guns, Chicago’s man advantage has struggled a lot more than it should, finishing 26th in the NHL. Though Phoenix’s PK is good, the Blackhawks’ PP must step up.
Why the Coyotes will win…
The Coyotes are like cats. They sneak up on everyone and have nine lives. Once you think you have them solved, Tippett’s team responds in a big way. As long as the ownership isn’t a distraction for the ‘Yotes (like it was last spring), they will make life tough on Chicago. The Coyotes can win this series because of Tippett’s system. A Toews-less Blackhawks lineup could have trouble garnering a lot of offense in this series. Hell, they had trouble against them even with Toews healthy. The question is whether the Coyotes can finally win their first playoff series since arriving in the desert.
Why the Blackhawks will win…
Any team with the likes of Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa has a chance to beat anybody in a playoff setting. Outside of their offensive core, though, there are concerns for Chicago. But there’s also a lot to like. The depth, highlighted by Viktor Stalberg and Andrew Shaw, is youthful and effective. Crawford is playing his best hockey of the year. Keith and Seabrook combine for one of the league’s top defensive duos. If Toews comes back during this series and makes an impact, look out!
Forecast…
This series has more intrigue than it may appear, and it’ll be a long series. If the season series carries over, the Coyotes should be the favorites. However, when it gets down to pressure-packed situations, I tend to favor the ‘Hawks. And if it comes down to a Game 7, they have the right mentality to come out on top. Crawford may not out-duel Smith, but the sophomore will make enough key saves to win.
Prediction: Blackhawks in 7
5) Red Wings vs. 4) Predators
Series Schedule…
Season Series…
Tied (3-3)
Previous Playoff Meetings…
2008 ECQ: 1) Red Wings over 8) Predators in 6
2004 ECQ: 1) Red Wings over 8) Predators in 6
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Red Wings… The Wings are better up front, especially with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg slated 1-2 down the middle.
Defensemen-
Edge: Predators… Though the Wings have Nicklas Lidstrom, the Preds’ top pair of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter can be a matchup nightmare. And don’t forget about the addition of Hal Gill.
Goaltending-
Edge: Predators… This will be a good battle in net, but there’s one difference: Pekka Rinne is a steal-a-series goalie; Jimmy Howard is not.
Special Teams-
Edge: Predators… The Preds have the edge here. Both of their special teams units are ranked in the top 10, while Detroit’s power play and penalty kill are both in the bottom half.
Coaching-
Edge: Red Wings… Mike Babcock is a veteran when it comes to the playoffs. He has seen it all.
Experience-
Edge: Red Wings… Many of the Wings’ weapons have been around for a while. They have 10 players with a Cup ring; Nashville has one.
Health-
Edge: Predators… The Preds have a slight edge, considering Detroit’s Dan Cleary and Darren Helm are banged up.
Keys to the Series…
Predators-
1. Match Detroit’s 5-on-5 production… The Red Wings were the NHL’s best 5-on-5 team in the regular season. Last year, the top 5-on-5 team won the Stanley Cup. The Predators rank 10th with a 1.05 for/against ratio while at 5-on-5, which is 0.39 shy of Detroit. Barry Trotz’s crew has to match their 5-on-5 play as best they can to force the Red Wings to win the series with their below-average special teams.
2. Contain Datsyuk… It’s easier said than done – but it needs to be done. Datsyuk is more than just a gifted player. He’s a game-changer. The Predators hope he’s not a series-changer like Ryan Kesler was in Round 2 last spring. The Predators know Datsyuk well, yet always get lit up by the crafty Russian. Having home ice and the leg up on matchups will help; so will having Hal Gill. But they can’t let Datsyuk go crazy on the stat sheet.
Red Wings-
1. Flip the switch… One of the only reasons why pundits are picking Detroit is because, well, they’re Detroit. This is a team that went 7-11-4 in their final 22 games of the season. The Red Wings are below-average on the road and in special teams; they are normally good in those categories. These are not the same vaunted Red Wings teams of the past. If anyone can flip the switch it is Detroit, and they’ll need to do so against the confident Predators.
2. Howard out-play Rinne… As stated above, the Predators have the edge in net because of Rinne. If Rinne out-performs Howard, the Red Wings could be exiting (much) quicker than they’d like. Howard has to make bigger saves in the clutch than Rinne. Howard has to will his team more than Rinne. Put simply, he has to out-perform Rinne for the Red Wings to prevail.
Why the Predators will win…
It’s their time. The Predators have put together this blueprint too successfully for too long for it not to work in the playoffs. And at some point they are going to have to knock off their benchmark – Detroit – to get where they want to be. They’ve never been in a better position to do so. Everyone knows about the big three: Weber, Suter and Rinne. Well that became the big four last month with the return of Alexander Radulov (who should play a big role in this series). Everything GM David Poile has done this season has been geared toward winning now, and his team has all the ingredients to go deep.
Why the Red Wings will win…
As the saying goes: Because they are Detroit. After the 2006 upset against Edmonton – the biggest upset in Stanley Cup Playoffs history – Babcock’s teams have gotten out of the first round in five straight postseasons. They have Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg. They also have Johan Franzen, who has been a clutch playoff performer his whole career. Moreover, the Red Wings still have the mystique on their side and 11 championship banners in the rafters. They aren’t a good road team, but if they can steal one or two in Nashville they can bank on their tremendous home record to win them the series.
Forecast…
This series is going to be dynamite. No doubt. There will be momentum changes. There will be overtime. Tensions will be high. Weber and Suter will slug it out against Datsyuk and Zetterberg. But this is the Predators’ series to lose. It means more to them. If they can’t beat Detroit and go deep now, when will they ever do so?
Prediction: Predators in 6
Photos credit: Getty Images
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